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Overconfidence is how wars are lost − lessons from Vietnam, Afghanistan and Ukraine for the war in Iran were ignored

The Conversation / 20 March 2026 / Yesterday

Culture Index

Score Breakdown

Relevance

3/25

Freshness

23/25

Authority

18/20

Brand Signal

12/15

Depth

3/15

5-Axis Cultural Radar

The Trump administration’s miscalculation of Iran is the latest entry in an old and lethal tradition in international politics: the catastrophic gap between what leaders believe and what war delivers.

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Overconfidence is how wars are lost − lessons from Vietnam, Afghanistan and Ukraine for the war in Iran were ignored

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